Will It Be Signed?

The Netherlands [ENA] I am referring to the long-anticipated peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia. On August 8, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to host Azerbaijani President Il-ham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in separate meetings. A tri-lateral meeting is also expected to follow. It is claimed that the primary purpose of both leaders' visit to the U.S. this time is to sign the peace agreement.

In other words, it is anticipated that the long-awaited peace treaty between the two countries will finally be signed. According to Azerbaijani media, President Aliyev has already departed for the United States. The visit is said to be taking place at the official invitation of the U.S. President. In recent times, relations between the U.S. and both countries have shown a positive upward trend—something that certainly does not please Russia.

If the peace agreement is signed in the United States, Russia's position in the Caucasus will be significantly weakened. Naturally, Russia is fully aware of this. Again, according to Azerbaijani media, Russia has already begun to show signs of anger. It is reported that Rus-sia bombed the pipeline through which Azerbaijan was supplying gas to Ukraine. Such angry actions reflect the last convulsions of the Russian imperial presence in the region. So, what would the signing of the treaty mean for the region?

First of all, Russia’s long arm in the Caucasus—which for centuries, particularly in the last two centuries, has kept Azerbaijanis and Armenians at odds—will finally be pushed back. Borders between the two countries would open, bringing undeniable economic benefits for both sides. Relations between the two peoples could gradually begin to improve. The President of Azerbaijan has repeatedly stated that if Armenia creates conditions for the return of Azerbaijanis who were displaced from their ancestral lands in 1988, then it would also be possible to allow the return of Armenians who once lived in Azerbaijan. But for all of this to happen, a gradual rapprochement between the two peoples is necessary.

It is known that the United States has expressed willingness to ensure the security of the cor-ridor that is supposed to connect Nakhchivan, an integral part of Azerbaijan, with the rest of the country, via Armenian territory. More precisely, this could be handled by an American company. Azerbaijan refers to this corridor as the Zangezur Corridor. If this corridor is opened, the processes mentioned above—economic impact, reconciliation between peoples, and more—could unfold much faster.

Most importantly, Russia’s influence in the Caucasus could be diminished even more swiftly. Everyone capable of making a fair assessment of the situation—be it in Azerbaijan or Ar-menia—is hopeful that the peace treaty will be signed during this visit to the U.S. by both leaders. Will the treaty be signed? Let us wait patiently. There is very little time left until we find out the answer.