Will There Be a Ceasefire?

The Netherlands [ENA] Global politics is experiencing turmoil, which has become even more evident in recent weeks. In particular, the events surrounding Ukraine remain at the center of international attention. Many states are using this war as an opportunity to demonstrate their power, while others seek to strengthen their positions. In some cases, Ukraine’s opinion on the matter is not even considered.

A few days ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to Brussels to attend a European summit. Many European countries decided to continue providing Ukraine with military and financial aid, though Hungary opposed this decision. At the same time, European nations allocated 800 billion euros to strengthen their defense capabilities. One of the main reasons for this is the growing perception that the United States is no longer a reliable partner. Europe is beginning to consider the necessity of organizing its own defense and views Russia as a serious threat. French President Emmanuel Macron explicitly stated this about a month ago, in his speech on February 5. He even made a point of highlighting France’s nuclear capabilities.

Russia, in turn, interpreted this as an open threat. In short, both sides are threatening each other while simultaneously accusing the other of making threats. There is no need to revisit the difficult situation Zelensky recently faced in the White House, as it has already been widely discussed. However, following that episode, Zelensky held numerous meetings across Europe, where European leaders reaffirmed their support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Donald Trump firmly declared that Zelensky must sign an agreement regarding Ukraine’s natural resources and has remained steadfast in this position. Eventually, Zelensky announced that he was ready to sign the agreement.

The White House also continued to insist on the necessity of a ceasefire, and Europe conveyed to Zelensky that it was not a bad idea. In reality, Ukraine had no other choice but to agree to a ceasefire. Finally, Zelensky agreed to a 30-day ceasefire. Now, all eyes are on Russia—or more precisely, on Vladimir Putin. If Putin agrees, a ceasefire is highly likely. If he refuses, it will put the U.S. president in a difficult position, leaving Trump with no choice but to continue assisting Ukraine. To be honest, I do not believe that Putin will reject the ceasefire. If the ceasefire happens, the next step could be a peace agreement. History has shown that all wars eventually come to an end.

However, the terms of any future peace agreement must be structured in a way that prevents future conflict. In other words, the ceasefire must not simply be a temporary pause before another war. Looking back at history, when the Treaty of Versailles was signed in 1919, the French army’s commander-in-chief, Marshal Ferdinand Foch, famously remarked: “This is not peace—it is an armistice for twenty years.” For now, the world awaits Putin’s response. Will there be a ceasefire? Will it be followed by a peace agreement? Will Zelensky find himself isolated at the negotiating table? The terms of any future peace deal depend heavily on these developments.

Once the political waters settle, it will become clear who gained and who lost from this war. History will render its judgment, as it always does—because history tends to repeat itself in different forms. In the late 18th century, when Russia set its sights on Crimea (and later annexed it), Russian General Potemkin wrote to Empress Catherine II: “Imagine that Crimea is yours...

The wart on your nose is gone. You will gain greater glory than any ruler of Russia ever has. Crimea is the key to dominance over the Black Sea... Russia needs paradise.” At the time, European states also objected to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, which greatly irritated Empress Catherine. She openly declared: “Let them talk—we will do our work.” (Source: Simon Sebag Montefiore, The Romanovs: 1613–1918) Now, we wait to see what Putin will say…