Will there be new elections in the Netherlands?

The parliamentary elections held on November 22, 2023, saw Geert Wilders' party (PVV) securing a substantial majority, surpassing other parties by a significant margin. It was not unexpected that the PVV would become the largest party. As early as 2017, Dutch writer Arthur Umbgrove wrote in his book "What We Know": "Now singing welcome songs (for refugees) may mean the PVV in power in five years" – and indeed after the results it appeared to be going that way. The crisis surrounding refugees had led to the collapse of the previous cabinet.

Now, the PVV is faced with the task of forming a new cabinet, and the key question is with whom they will form a coalition. Despite being a far-right political party with nationalist and anti-Islamic views, the VVD, BBB, and NSC – all leaning right but not as far as the PVV – expressed willingness to discuss coalition formation. Talks had already commenced, with former politician Ronald Plasterk serving as the informateur (a person who, in the context of government formation, explores possibilities of forming a cabinet.)

On February 6th, 2024, the head of the NSC, Pieter Omzigt, surprised the nation and colleagues involved in coalition discussions, as well as the informateur, by declaring his unwillingness to continue working with these parties. This led to Ronald Plasterk's resignation and the subsequent appointment of Kim Putters in his place on February 14th. I am curious to see if his efforts will have more success.

In my view, Mr. Wilders may struggle to form a coalition, and doubts linger about whether he genuinely intends to do so. His pre-election promises, particularly on asylum policies and insurance, were deemed unrealistic by many experts. Post-election, Mr. Wilders announced a temporary suspension of some party positions, including his stance on Islam, previously a vocal point. The credibility of his promises is widely questioned, leaving uncertainty about whether he himself views them as realistic. As the Netherlands awaits the outcome, the possibility of a new cabinet, a minority cabinet, or even new elections looms, adding to the suspense surrounding the country's political future. Vugar Abbasov